Quakefinder Blog

“False Alarms” in Forecasting

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the sociological aspects of natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to help QuakeFinder appreciate both the technical and non-technical implications of our evolving technology. We seek to enable an earthquake forecasting system and save lives. Understanding the societal impacts of forecasting will help guide us in our quest.
In this newsletter, we introduce false alarms in disaster forecasting and provide a few recent case studies.

Would you like to know days in advance of an earthquake? How about a few seconds of warning? Most everyone would answer ‘yes’. However, what if the timing was incorrect? What if the forecasted earthquake intensity was off by a few orders of magnitude? Imagine the preparations you would make and your general discomfort while waiting for the big shake that doesn’t happen. The question is: At what point is it ok to issue a public warning when the forecasting system is not always correct? ….
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QuakeFinder and our parent company, Stellar Solutions Inc., are featured in Palo Alto Online.

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History of Hurricane Forecasting, Part 2.

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the history of weather and natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to understand the pioneering efforts of those who brought us these capabilities, the often-messy process of discovery, the societal reaction and impacts of forecasting, the resistance of establishment naysayers, and all the setbacks and triumphs along the way. QuakeFinder seeks to enable an earthquake forecasting system and gathering these lessons-learned from history will help guide us on our quest. The following article is a continuation of our earlier look into the history of hurricane forecasting.

In Part 1 of this study, we discussed the history of hurricane forecasting from Columbus’ near-death experience during his fourth trip to the Caribbean, through the end of WWII where forecasting research and operations received greater attention to protect the U.S. Naval fleet.

Post WWII, forecasting methods and coordination between various military and civilian weather agencies improved. After a deadly hurricane season in 1954, Congress and the Eisenhower Administration approved the establishment of the National Hurricane Research Project (NHRP) – an effort with dedicated funding for research centers, reconnaissance aircraft, observatories, weather balloons, data collection and analysis…


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QuakeFinder will be presenting at the upcoming AGU Conference in New Orleans

Dr. Karl Kappler will present: “Latest Results From the QuakeFinder Statistical Analysis Framework”
Time: Tuesday, 12 December 2017 14:25 – 14:40

Dan Schneider will be hosting a poster session entitled: “The Measurand Framework: Scaling Exploratory Data Analysis”
IN23A-0073
Time: Tuesday, 12 December 2017 13:40 – 18:00
New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center – Poster Hall D-F

Please join us and say ‘hi’ to the team!