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QuakeFinder and Google Research publish study advancing predictive data on earthquakes

Dan Schneider — Thu, 13 Oct 2022 15:57:51 +0000

California study shows statistically significant electromagnetic signal in days prior to earthquakes

Project Namazu was the codename used for the Google / QuakeFinder collaboration

Palo Alto, CA – QuakeFinder, Stellar Solutions’ earthquake forecasting research initiative, and Google Research have published a study in American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth that advances the pursuit of predictive data in alerting the public to impending earthquakes. The team identified a signal of modest but statistically significant size in the days immediately preceding intermediate to large earthquakes in California. The full publication of Case-Control Study on a Decade of Ground-Based Magnetometers in California Reveals Modest Signal 24–72 hr Prior to Earthquakes can be viewed at https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024109

“Data science and artificial intelligence are giving scientists new tools to understand the physical world. We are excited that our research combined with Stellar Solution’s unique magnetometer recordings is hinting at previously unknown physical phenomena in earthquake forecasting.”, Jason Miller, Product Management Director for Google Applied Science.

The Google Applied Sciences team led the effort, designed the study, and performed the analysis with exceptional rigor. QuakeFinder provided the data and verified the findings.

“This study provides important evidence that a physical change can be observed in the days before an earthquake. While we still have much work to do in identifying stronger signals, this research supports our vision that earthquake forecasting using the magnetic field may one day be possible,” said Dan Schneider, QuakeFinder’s Director of Research and Development.

QuakeFinder, which is seeking to ultimately save lives by forecasting earthquakes, has collected data since 2005 using over 150 stations around the world. Their high-resolution magnetometer recordings have captured thousands of earthquakes (M3.0 or greater) to support their work in developing algorithms to analyze these signals.

This is the second study that has evaluated the QuakeFinder California dataset and the second one to find a statistically significant correlation between activity in the magnetic field and earthquakes days later. In 2019, QuakeFinder published the first comprehensive evaluation of this dataset in Computers and Geosciences: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2019.104317. This used single station data and different algorithms but the same data set and found statistical correlations prior to quakes greater than M4.

The second study (by Google) achieved a Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of 0.5 when comparing the magnetic data recorded 24-72 hours before earthquakes (greater than magnitude 4.5) to data recorded earlier. A supplemental analysis added a compensation factor for the average global magnetic activity and this boosted the SNR from 0.5 to 0.96. As an SNR of 1 or greater is typically considered a compelling result in the physical sciences, this analysis points toward the magnetic field being a valuable source of information in the earthquake forecasting process. The study employed a number of strategies to ensure rigor. One was to combine signals from pairs of stations to guard against noise that might pollute the data at a single station, such as automobile traffic, construction and other human activity near the station’s location. Another strategy was to control for variations across different stations, locations and geologies by using a case-control construction in which data from station pairs close to an earthquake (~30km) are compared to other time periods from the same station pair. These strategies help to eliminate false positives.

“As a next step in our research, when correcting for global magnetic activity, we can look to use actual high resolution remote station data provided by QuakeFinder rather than the low resolution global average provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as it may allow the signal to become even more apparent,” Schneider added. He noted that this study was conducted on data collected in California; and its results cannot be assumed for other fault types or geologic conditions.

Stellar Solutions is a Malcolm Baldrige Award-winning company that for 27 years has solved some of the most complex systems engineering problems, from national security to space exploration, across commercial and government sectors. Founder Celeste Ford’s vision, satisfying customer critical needs while realizing employee dream jobs, led to the creation of QuakeFinder in 2001. Stellar Solutions has invested over $30-million in the QuakeFinder program, augmented by partial grants from NASA, the US Department of Defense, PG&E and the Musk Foundation. The initiative has drawn on the expertise of leading aerospace organizations like NASA, geoscientists from Stanford University and University of California at Berkeley, Stellar’s own systems engineers, and partners around the world including from Peru, Taiwan and Greece. Originally inspired by Stanford research after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California, QuakeFinder founder Tom Bleier devised the idea of placing sensors underground every 20 miles close to the fault trace to capture pre-seismic electromagnetic disturbances.

About Stellar Solutions, Inc.: Stellar Solutions, Inc. is a global aerospace and systems engineering services provider to commercial, defense, intelligence, civil and international sectors. Stellar Solutions provides systems engineering capabilities and strategic support for global communications, remote sensing, national defense, and space exploration. These solutions to customer critical needs connect technology and customers across multiple domains. With physical operations throughout the U.S. and around the globe, Stellar Solutions is a recognized leader in delivering end-to-end critical expertise and problem-solving skills. https://www.stellarsolutions.com/

Stanford study casts doubt on the predictive value of earthquake foreshocks

DanCoughlin — Thu, 07 Jun 2018 15:08:26 +0000

Stanford-led study questions previous findings about the value of foreshocks as warning signs that a big earthquake is coming, instead showing them to be indistinguishable from ordinary earthquakes.

Read The Full Article

QuakeFinder’s STEM Project Featured in California

DanCoughlin — Mon, 07 May 2018 15:53:39 +0000

QuakeFinder’s STEM Project is featured in The Tri-City Voice Newspaper

QuakeFinder’s Tom Bleier has been working with over a dozen high schools in the Bay Area installing our specialized sensors. Science students are gaining hands-on experience and supporting our earthquake research. These schools are located near the Hayward Fault – a key area for QuakeFinder for collecting pre-seismic electromagnetic data. Students assist with installation of the equipment and processing of the data.

Read The Full Article

112th Anniversary of the 1906 SF Earthquake

DanCoughlin — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 16:16:47 +0000

On April 18th, 1906 at approximately 5:12 am, San Francisco was struck with a M7.9 earthquake. Between the 60 seconds of extreme shaking and the resulting 4-day long fire, over 80% of the city was left in ruins. Approximately 3000 lives were lost.

Video photography was still in its infancy in 1906 when the now-famous Miles Brothers opened a film studio in SF one month prior to the quake. A Trip Down Market Street, a 8-minute piece, was shot 4 days before the earthquake. On the way to New York with that film, the Miles Brothers heard of the earthquake and returned to the city to film the devastation. That footage was lost until it was recently found at a flea market in Alameda, CA. The film has now been digitized and premiered at the Edison Theater in Fremont this past weekend. The footage has been delivered to the U.S. Library Of Congress and will be posted on-line later this summer. Stay tuned.

QuakeFinder Q1 Newsletter: “False Alarms”

DanCoughlin — Fri, 06 Apr 2018 14:53:52 +0000

“False Alarms” in Forecasting

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the sociological aspects of natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to help QuakeFinder appreciate both the technical and non-technical implications of our evolving technology. We seek to enable an earthquake forecasting system and save lives. Understanding the societal impacts of forecasting will help guide us in our quest.
In this newsletter, we introduce false alarms in disaster forecasting and provide a few recent case studies.

Would you like to know days in advance of an earthquake? How about a few seconds of warning? Most everyone would answer ‘yes’. However, what if the timing was incorrect? What if the forecasted earthquake intensity was off by a few orders of magnitude? Imagine the preparations you would make and your general discomfort while waiting for the big shake that doesn’t happen. The question is: At what point is it ok to issue a public warning when the forecasting system is not always correct? ….
Read more!

QuakeFinder Featured In Palo Alto

DanCoughlin — Mon, 19 Mar 2018 20:54:53 +0000

QuakeFinder and our parent company, Stellar Solutions Inc., are featured in Palo Alto Online.

Read It Here

QuakeFinder 4th Quarter Newsletter

DanCoughlin — Wed, 03 Jan 2018 18:04:55 +0000

History of Hurricane Forecasting, Part 2.

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the history of weather and natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to understand the pioneering efforts of those who brought us these capabilities, the often-messy process of discovery, the societal reaction and impacts of forecasting, the resistance of establishment naysayers, and all the setbacks and triumphs along the way. QuakeFinder seeks to enable an earthquake forecasting system and gathering these lessons-learned from history will help guide us on our quest. The following article is a continuation of our earlier look into the history of hurricane forecasting.

In Part 1 of this study, we discussed the history of hurricane forecasting from Columbus’ near-death experience during his fourth trip to the Caribbean, through the end of WWII where forecasting research and operations received greater attention to protect the U.S. Naval fleet.

Post WWII, forecasting methods and coordination between various military and civilian weather agencies improved. After a deadly hurricane season in 1954, Congress and the Eisenhower Administration approved the establishment of the National Hurricane Research Project (NHRP) – an effort with dedicated funding for research centers, reconnaissance aircraft, observatories, weather balloons, data collection and analysis…

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QuakeFinder’s Two Sessions at American Geophysical Union Conference

DanCoughlin — Fri, 08 Dec 2017 18:20:45 +0000

QuakeFinder will be presenting at the upcoming AGU Conference in New Orleans

Dr. Karl Kappler will present: “Latest Results From the QuakeFinder Statistical Analysis Framework”
Time: Tuesday, 12 December 2017 14:25 – 14:40

Dan Schneider will be hosting a poster session entitled: “The Measurand Framework: Scaling Exploratory Data Analysis”
IN23A-0073
Time: Tuesday, 12 December 2017 13:40 – 18:00
New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center – Poster Hall D-F

Please join us and say ‘hi’ to the team!

Stellar Solutions, Inc Named Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award Winner

DanCoughlin — Thu, 16 Nov 2017 19:15:25 +0000

Congratulations to QuakeFinder’s Parent Company – Stellar Solutions!

Palo Alto, CA (November 16, 2017)

Today, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce named Stellar Solutions a recipient of the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, the nation’s highest honor for performance excellence and sustainability. Stellar Solutions is a woman-owned small business in the aerospace engineering services field with a vision of satisfying customer critical needs while realizing dream jobs. Founded in 1995 by Celeste Ford, Stellar Solutions has been providing innovative solutions and high impact for its customers (government and commercial, national and international) for over 20 years. Receiving the Baldrige Award is an incredible honor that recognizes Stellar’s sustainability through visionary leadership, organizational alignment, and systemic improvement and innovation.

“We at Stellar Solutions are honored and humbled by the National Baldrige Award recognition. It is especially important for me as the Founder to have created an exciting business that is “built to last”, and to have the efforts of our Stellar team recognized,” said CEO and Founder of Stellar, Celeste Ford. “We work hard each and every day to have high impact and to live our vision of ‘satisfying our customers’ critical needs while realizing our dream jobs’, and the Baldrige framework has been an important element in making our business successful and sustainable.”

The Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Program is managed by the Commerce Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). An independent board of examiners evaluated 24 applications this year on their processes around leadership, strategy, customers, measurement & analysis, workforce, and operations, as well as their results related to each of these categories. Stellar is one among five award recipients who will be presented the award in April 2018 during the Quest for Excellence Conference (the Baldrige community’s national meeting) in Baltimore, MD. Only 110 organizations have received the award (out of over 1,600 applicants) since 1987 when the Baldrige program began.

About Stellar Solutions, Inc.
Stellar Solutions, Inc. is an aerospace engineering services company that provides top tier engineering and technical management talent in support of significant national and international aerospace programs. Stellar is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA, with offices in Colorado and Virginia, as well as international sister companies in the UK and France. The Company has distinguished itself by satisfying customers’ critical needs and crossing the boundaries on diverse projects including defense-related intelligence projects, international telecommunications satellites, commercial imagery satellites, and NASA’s earth science and planetary missions. Stellar is also committed to helping every employee find their dream job, and has been recognized as one of Fortune magazine’s Best Places to Work for four years running.

Stellar Solutions areas of expertise include systems engineering, systems integration, mission operations and engineering, continuity of operations and resiliency, program management and strategic planning. Stellar also operates a Humanitarian R&D sector, QuakeFinder, whose goal is to save lives by forecasting earthquakes by developing the technology and methods for detection and analysis of electromagnetic earthquake precursors. Stellar and QuakeFinder launched the first commercial triple-cubesat in 2003, and currently operate an extensive network of sensors monitoring electromagnetic activity in earthquake-prone regions, including California, Peru, Taiwan, Greece, Chile, and Indonesia.

For more information, contact Craig Fairlee, VP Business Operations (650) 838-0946 | cfairlee@stellarsolutions.com

QuakeFinder Publishes Journal Paper

DanCoughlin — Wed, 01 Nov 2017 18:17:03 +0000

Congratulations to Karl, Dan, Laura and Tom for their recent publication of QF research in Earthquake Science!

“Identification and classification of transient pulses observed in magnetometer array data by time-domain principal component analysis filtering” is the first of three journal papers to be published describing our evolving techniques to understand and characterize electromagnetic signals from our magnetometer array. This particular research was performed in early 2016 and was our first attempt to identify classes of EM ‘pulses’ in our time series data. The 6.0 Napa quake on Aug 24th, 2014 around which QF had four stations, is used as the basis for these analyses. The technique described successfully identified solar activity and also a class of pulses we hypothesize to be earth-emitted. The results of this research helped guide our data science plan in 2016/17 during which we’ve developed additional techniques and tools. The 2nd paper, now in review for publication, describes this technique and the corresponding results. Stay tuned for great things from QF!