QuakeFinder Blog

QuakeFinder 3rd Quarter Newsletter


History of Hurricane Forecasting, Part 1.

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the history of weather and natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to understand the pioneering efforts of those who brought us these capabilities, the often-messy process of discovery, the societal reaction and impacts of forecasting, the resistance of establishment naysayers, and all the setbacks and triumphs along the way. QuakeFinder seeks to enable an earthquake forecasting system and gathering these lessons-learned from history will help guide us on our quest. The following article is a look into the early history of hurricane forecasting.



Do you know the first recorded hurricane forecast was made by Christopher Columbus? Within 10 years after the discovery of the New World, he had made four cross-Atlantic exploration journeys and as a result had gained unique experience in tropical Atlantic weather. While 15th century sailors knew of gale force storms in the eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean, those 100 mph winds were nothing compared to the 150+ mph wind storms of the Caribbean. Columbus knew first hand the power of the ‘tempest’ storms having lost 2 of his 3 ships near Hispaniola (modern-day Haiti &Dominican Republic) during his second voyage. And he knew some of the early warning signs – a brick-red horizon, shifting winds and a rising swell. On his fourth trip in 1502 before a planned return to Spain, he warned the ruling Governor (and rival for the Queen’s attention) of an approaching large storm from the southeast. The fleet of 30 ships ignored the warning and set sail while Columbus and his four ships sheltered on the west side of the island. Two days later the hurricane hit and sunk 21 of the traversing vessels killing over 500 sailors. Columbus’ ships were unharmed.


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QuakeFinder 2nd Quarter 2017 Newsletter – Simultaneity




Simultaneity [sahy-muh - tuh-nee-i-tee]
noun
1. the relation between two or more events happening at the same time

On April 24th, 2017 at 6:39 pm, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck 22 miles off the coast of Chile just west of the port city Valparaiso. Valparaiso, known by sailors as “little San Francisco”, is the 2nd largest metropolitan city in Chile with a population slightly over 800,000. For a city already jumpy being just miles from the ‘Pacific Ring of Fire’ fault line, the tsunami alarm issued minutes after the quake sent thousands onto congested evacuation routes…. Read more


QuakeFinder 1st Quarter 2017 Newsletter – History of Tornado Forecasting, Part 2


History of Tornado Forecasting, Part 2.

This newsletter is a continuation of our series of studies into the history of weather and natural disaster forecasting. The intent of these studies is to understand the pioneering efforts of those who brought us these capabilities, the often-messy process of discovery, the societal reaction and impacts of forecasting, the resistance of establishment naysayers, and all the setbacks and triumphs along the way. QuakeFinder seeks to enable an earthquake forecasting system and gathering these lessons-learned from history will help guide us on our quest. The following article is a look into tornado forecasting from World War II to the present day.



In Part 1 of this study, we discussed the history of tornado forecasting from its infancy in the late 1860s through the end of the 19th century. The understanding of weather and weather patterns in the U.S. was advancing, as was a volunteer network of observation stations to collect atmospheric data. The growing telegraph network was used to transmit the data to centralized locations for analysis and dissemination of weather “probabilities”. The federal government then established a branch under the Army Signals Corp to augment the observation network and begin providing weather reports and forecasts. Tornado forecasting soon followed in the mid-west with decent success, but was quickly terminated due to turf battles between the military and civilian weather agencies. By the close of the 1800s, the official charter for weather forecasting was in civilian control (Dept. of Agriculture) and a ban on tornado forecasting was instituted for the next half century. Tornado research ceased as well.

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New Study shows linked fault lines in S. California; M 7.4 quake possible



A fault system that runs from San Diego to Los Angeles is capable of producing up to magnitude 7.3 earthquakes if the offshore segments rupture and a 7.4 if the southern onshore segment also ruptures, according to an analysis led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.


The Newport-Inglewood and Rose Canyon faults had been considered separate systems but the study shows that they are actually one continuous fault system running from San Diego Bay to Seal Beach in Orange County, then on land through the Los Angeles basin.





Continue reading about this study here.


QuakeFinder has 5 sensors within 12 miles of the now-combined fault lines. Past research indicates electromagnetic signals of a large imminent earthquake can be detected at this distance. QuakeFinder is making significant strides in the data analysis of our captured earthquakes in the quest to develop a forecasting algorithm. When developed, QuakeFinder will be operationally monitoring the Newport-Inglewood/Rose Canyon fault.