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Inspired by a 1985 talk on “earthquake lights” by USGS scientist John Derr, QuakeFinder founder Tom Bleier embarked on a search for electromagnetic signals associated with earthquakes. Starting with a tree as an antenna, and progressing to a 20-foot copper coil on the wall of his house, he looked for anything in the data that might provide an explanation for the lights or as reported in scientific papers, the radio interference before earthquakes in Chile and Japan. But like others before him, he found nothing.
Then in 1989 the Loma Prieta M7.0 quake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Analysis of magnetometer data collected by Dr. Tony Fraser-Smith and Stanford clearly showed ultra-low frequency magnetic signals appearing two weeks prior to the quake. This “proof of concept” spurred Belier to continue his quest. Designing a low-cost instrument that could be deployed near faults to try and capture more examples like Fraser-Smith’s, he worked with science programs at high schools near faults around California to have seniors build and install sensors.
Ten years later, when Bleier’s work at aerospace engineering firm Stellar Solutions reached a turning point, his conversation with company owner Celeste Ford about what to do next turned to his work on possible ways to forecast earthquakes. Inspired by the potential of a disruptive technology that could save lives Ford threw the support of Stellar behind the idea. The pair founded QuakeFinder in 2000 to bring professional focus and more resources to the project. Starting by expanding the high school program, QuakeFinder quickly moved to develop and deploy more sophisticated and sensitive instruments.
In 2003, QuakeFinder teamed with a group of students at Stanford University to build and launch a small satellite using the CubeSat format. QuakeSat’s mission objectives were to detect, record, and downlink the ultra-low frequency signals associated with earthquakes. The satellite was successfully launched from a Russian spaceport aboard a repurposed ICBM, and was operational for more than one year. During its useful life, QuakeSat collected data above earthquake-prone regions around the world, beaming back more than two GB of data. Analysis of this data revealed magnetic pulsations in the days and weeks prior to 6 earthquakes, but ultimately the team decided that the time period in which the satellite could observe any particular portion of the earth was inadequate for effective quake detection.
A major breakthrough came in 2007 when a significant earthquake occurred close to a QuakeFinder instrument at Alum Rock, California. Reviewing data recorded before the M5.4 quake on October 30, researchers discovered a distinct pattern of ultra-low frequency magnetic pulses starting two weeks before the quake, and disappearing after the event. They correlated this data with results from air ionization sensors and infrared imaging of the area, and found a clear alignment between the indicators.
It would be nearly three years before another quake large enough and close enough to an instrument. QuakeFinder’s international expansion in 2010 paid off immediately when an instrument installed near Tacna, Peru in March recorded data prior to a M6.2 on May 5. Again, the pattern of pulses was clear. A cluster of quakes between M4 and M5 continued to shake the region, and the pulse count remained elevated. When the quakes quit, the pulses quit, reinforcing the evidence.
Now QuakeFinder is expanding its sensor network to try to get more data on more quakes. Only by recording and analyzing many more examples will a reliable forecasting method be developed.
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